Raising serious concerns about the counting process and the accuracy of the provisional results, it appears that votes from 95 ballot boxes have not been counted. From the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (13.04.07): Unopened ballot boxes found in East Timor
"The [CNE] says it has discovered 95 ballot boxes, holding several hundred votes each, which have either not been counted or were not added to the election data base. Fifty-nine of the boxes come from Dili."
This is a close race, and a relative jump of only a few thousand votes for Lasama could reshuffle the anticipated Ramos-Horta v. Lu'Olo run-off.
So here's the question: If the remaining 36 uncounted ballot boxes came from Lasama's strongest districts, could they win him a bearth in the 8 May 2007 presidential show-down? The answer appears to be no. Geography is the key factor here. If the boxes came from all over Timor Leste, their contents would closely track with the national outcomes and not confer a strong advantage to a single candidate. This is not the case, and over 60% of the boxes are from Dili where Ramos-Horta dominated.
In Dili, Ramos-Horta pulled in about 40% of the vote in Dili and Lasama garnered just under 15%. In Lasama's strongest districts he similarly pulled in 40% and Ramos-Horta took a bit over 15% (based on KOMEG's first numbers, cheers TW). If Lasama's numbers had been higher in these districts, and Ramos-Horta's weaker, there would be more to play with. However with these matching percentages, the numbers game becomes much simpler.
As the majority of the boxes come from Dili, it appears that these ballots will actually widen the gap between Lasama and Ramos-Horta. Even if the 36 other boxes came from Lasama strongholds like Bobonaro and Covalima, it is very unlikely that the percentage of votes for Lasama would so excede the district averages that the number of new Lasama votes could eclipse and significantly excede the votes that Ramos-Horta will garner from the 49 Dili boxes. In the end, this game is about relative gains.
There are elements of this election that deserve praise: voting preceded peacefully in the vast majority of polling centers and domestic elections monitoring groups such as KOMEG placed poll watchers across the country. The misplacement of almost one hundred big blue ballot boxes does not.
Photo: Collapsible cardboard voting booths, Dare. Inside the booths, below the platform for writing on the ballot, there is a small gap. Observers from ANFREL recorded instances of voters sliding their ballots into the (perceived) slot rather than depositing their ballots into the plastic ballot boxes. More voter education is needed.
