Dreams of Route 2

Driving to and from Manatuto this weekend I passed the Metinaro IDP camp across from the F-FDTL training center and was struck by its transformation. When I first arrived, it was a jumble of white UNHCR tents. Today, most tents are gobbled up with palm thatch and squash vines climb onto the roofs of small stands selling washing powder and noodles.*

I realized that this permanence made sense – after all, these people have been living there for almost twelve months

This has been a week or so of thinking about the passage of time and its neat divisions into years: birthdays, the anniversary of the crisis, and decisions about where I want to be and when.

My yearlong contract here is up at the end of August, after which I will be home for a month. I will then be coming back to Dili to work at Belun – an innovative local NGO, which, among other projects, supports civil society organizations across Timor Leste.



Deciding to stay in Timor Leste has changed my thinking, and I notice it in small decisions. For example, last year I got really into cycling in the States – taking spinning through the winter and once the spring came, screaming down to Bristol a few times a week, reggaeton on my headphones. I adore my perfect bike, yet when Jess mentioned selling it, it made sense.

The sensation is of shifting my center of gravity towards the Pacific – having fewer things in the States and finding a comfortable living place, a community and a good bike here, now.

The paradox is that making the decision to stay makes me want to go home. O to see New England, family and friends! Before, to fantasize about the Harvard bookstore and what is coming up mom’s garden felt like I was being unfaithful to under-dog Dili. Now, with another year ahead, I believe I have adequately professed my love.

I can now let my thoughts tiptoe back a bit… daffodils, hockey rinks, squirrels, Ahhlington.


*The be-palmed tents reminded me of the trailer on the road Red Top that had a wood frame house squatting on top, and the strange, engulfing, Eye, Ear and Throat hospital in Boston.

Photo: Dollar beach today; Fi, The Vegetarian and Mustang in attendance. Built a magnificent shelter. Can I really be missing Route 2 when I spent my afternoon like that?

Finalized

On Saturday, the Appeals Court approved the election results. This marks the end of the first round of elections: one down, two to go. The run-off election between Francisco Lu'Olo Guterres and José Ramos-Horta will be on 9 May 2007.

Depending on the source, between two and six of the unsuccessful candidates have thrown their support behind Ramos-Horta. A rep from UDT (Carrascalão's party) told Tempo that in exchange for backing JRH: "'We want two seats in the cabinet,' said Rodrigues. The Timor Leste Democratic Union is eying the post of Mining and Energy Minister now held by Jose Teixeira of Fretilin. 'Because we specialize in this field.'"

The Ministry of Mining and Energy oversees Timor Leste's significant oil and gas weath and the over one-billion-dollar Petroleum Fund - the proceeds from which Ramos-Horta has expressed increased interest in tapping. With UDT pulling in less than 2% of the vote, I hope that the PM drives a harder bargain.


Photo: The newest, and in my opinion, best Indian restuarant in Dili. Sucumaran, the proprietor/chef, is from India's southwest Kerala region.

Final Provisional Results*

The CNE released the final provisional results today at an afternoon press conference. We arrived late to find the usual crowd of local press and sweating foreign journalists already twisting impatiently in their plastic chairs. The proceedings got underway well after 6 pm, with the somewhat controversial polyglot Fr Martinho Gusmao joined by the more stoical president of the CNE, Faustino Cardoso, who presented.

Today's results were the product of the CNE reopening ballot boxes from Dili (14), Ermera (3) and Manufahi (1) in order to correct what they dubbed "arithmetic inconsistencies." As was expected, the new numbers did not change the standings - Francisco 'Lu'Olo' Guterres will still face Jose Ramos-Horta in the run-off election. These numbers do not show any big jumps or losses for a single candidate, suggesting that these errors were probably not fraudulent. Please click to enlarge table.

I, however, was most interested in a two different sets of numbers:

Total Registered Voters: 522,933
Total Votes Cast : 427,712
Voter Turnout Rate: 81.79 %

Total Valid Votes Cast (compiled from candidate totals): 403,941
Invalid Votes (votes cast - valid votes): 23,771
% Invalid Votes: 5.56%

These figures, while they do not determine the presidency, speak to the engagement of Timorese voters (turnout rate) and to how well they understood the voting process (invalid votes). I would hope to see the later figure drop in the run-off as the ballot becomes less complex and people have limbered up after the first round of voting. Also, it will be interesting to see how the voter turnout rate changes - are people less likely to vote if their favored candidate has been knocked out? Or, are do people view the run-off as the more important, definitive round?

On a final note, the press conference, to the misery of one camera operator, took place in Timor Leste's two official languages: Tetum and Portuguese. Similarly, the press release was not available in English or Indonesian. I will post a translation ASAP.

Photo: The joint KOMEG/ANFREL press conference at the Elections Media Center.


* Writing "Final Provisional" reminds me of when I was editing a piece in which the author insisted on frequently using the term "flat hierarchy" to describe an organization. This prompted me to write Barbara Wallraff of the Atlantic Monthly's Word Court column; she sensibly told me to let it go.

BWRFC

Bowperson just let me know that the Brown Women’s rugby team took Ivies and is now off to Nationals.

It was a fierce, devoted, welcoming and powerfully intelligent team when I joined it. Seeing them back at Nationals reminds me to believe, again, so strongly, in what they stand for.

Counting Update

According to AFP (16.04.07), the CNE has opened 42 ballot boxes becuase "the documents (inside) were incomplete."

It appears that the CNE found that some actas - the official tally sheets compiled at the polling stations - contained figures that were manifestly flawed, while others were missing information, for example, the total number of votes for each candidate. In recent days the CNE sought and received permission from the courts to reopen ballot boxes and correct the faulty actas.

In the upcoming rounds, would providing calculators help?

The Wait Continues...

A UNMIT media release (14.04.07) has confirmed that the final results for the presidential elections will not be ready by Monday as originally announced. The statement says that the CNE* “requires more time than originally allotted to complete the national tabulation.”

With all the discussion of counting, I have decided to do some ‘nuts and bolts’ about the counting process and then write a bit about the implications of this delay.

The counting process breaks down into three levels: polling station, district and national. Polling stations are found within polling centers (often classrooms within a school). Each station comes equipped with ballots, ballot boxes, etc. and is staffed by a five-person team from STAE.* Each team has a president; a identification verification officer; a ballot paper controller; a ballot box controller; and a queue controller.

Following the counting, the president fills out the acta or official tally sheet for his or her station. The number of blank, void, cancelled, reclaimed and valid votes are recorded along with the numbers on the ballot box seals and the total number of ballots. These actas form the foundation of the whole counting process, and observers should be making note of whether or not the correct numbers are written down.

Figures from these master documents are compiled at the district level. District totals are then sent to the National Tabulation Center in Dili. According to the electoral law (PDFs of the three elections laws are available through IFES):

Within seventy-two hours of receiving the district tabulation minutes, CNE shall proceed to the national tabulation by verifying the district tabulation minutes and deciding definitively on the ballot papers considered null and subject to protests forwarded to it, including the complaints filed pursuant to item 4 of Article 43.

So this is where we are stalled right now. I do not have any information on whether the CNE is going back to the actas, counting ballots, or just needs more time with the district totals.

No matter what they are doing, this delay is not great news.

The run-off is just three weeks away, and the parliamentary elections are also rushing towards us with breakneck speed. President Gusmão announced the date for the parliamentary election only two days after the presidential poll and they will take place on 30 June 2007. Legally the earliest the election could have been was 28 June.

By setting the date, Gusmão got the clock ticking on coalition building between parties (must be completed within 20 days of the announcement) and on the presentation of candidates (w/in 30 days). These are complicated processes and the parties will run out of time if they wait until the presidential election is settled.

All three elections have now come into play.


* STAE (Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration) covers the technical side of the elections, for example the printing and distribution of ballots. The CNE (National Electoral Commission) oversees STAE and the counting. It has been suggested that in the future CNE should have a hand in determining the dates for the elections.

Photo: Top - Church and UN cars near the polling center in Dare. Bottom - Timorese police violating the presidential election law by sitting within 25m of the polling center (Art. 35).

"One is the Loneliest Number"

Raising serious concerns about the counting process and the accuracy of the provisional results, it appears that votes from 95 ballot boxes have not been counted. From the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (13.04.07):

Unopened ballot boxes found in East Timor

"The [CNE] says it has discovered 95 ballot boxes, holding several hundred votes each, which have either not been counted or were not added to the election data base. Fifty-nine of the boxes come from Dili."

This is a close race, and a relative jump of only a few thousand votes for Lasama could reshuffle the anticipated Ramos-Horta v. Lu'Olo run-off.

So here's the question: If the remaining 36 uncounted ballot boxes came from Lasama's strongest districts, could they win him a bearth in the 8 May 2007 presidential show-down?

The answer appears to be no. Geography is the key factor here. If the boxes came from all over Timor Leste, their contents would closely track with the national outcomes and not confer a strong advantage to a single candidate. This is not the case, and over 60% of the boxes are from Dili where Ramos-Horta dominated.

In Dili, Ramos-Horta pulled in about 40% of the vote in Dili and Lasama garnered just under 15%. In Lasama's strongest districts he similarly pulled in 40% and Ramos-Horta took a bit over 15% (based on KOMEG's first numbers, cheers TW). If Lasama's numbers had been higher in these districts, and Ramos-Horta's weaker, there would be more to play with. However with these matching percentages, the numbers game becomes much simpler.

As the majority of the boxes come from Dili, it appears that these ballots will actually widen the gap between Lasama and Ramos-Horta. Even if the 36 other boxes came from Lasama strongholds like Bobonaro and Covalima, it is very unlikely that the percentage of votes for Lasama would so excede the district averages that the number of new Lasama votes could eclipse and significantly excede the votes that Ramos-Horta will garner from the 49 Dili boxes. In the end, this game is about relative gains.

There are elements of this election that deserve praise: voting preceded peacefully in the vast majority of polling centers and domestic elections monitoring groups such as KOMEG placed poll watchers across the country. The misplacement of almost one hundred big blue ballot boxes does not.


Photo: Collapsible cardboard voting booths, Dare. Inside the booths, below the platform for writing on the ballot, there is a small gap. Observers from ANFREL recorded instances of voters sliding their ballots into the (perceived) slot rather than depositing their ballots into the plastic ballot boxes. More voter education is needed.

"54-46 That's My Number"

A few new numbers rolled into my inbox this morning, and I thought that I would keep up the scratch-work until official figures lay this to rest.

The new number - 90,000 invalid votes (a little too round) - came via a FRETILIN spokesperson in a Thursday interview with the Jakarta Post (12.04.07). This number, I expect, is high.

Here is why: Adding together the total number from the CNE of valid votes counted (357,766) with FRETILIN's number for invalid votes (90,000) we get an estimate of total votes cast - 447,766. In this scenario, invalid votes make up 20% of all votes or 1 of every 5 votes cast. As I wrote before, this figure is generally expected to be below 5%.

Votes are invalidated for a number of reasons, including the lack of both a signature and a stamp on the ballot paper, no vote, and multiple votes. While a high percentage of invalid votes could reflect fraud, it also is attributable to a dearth of voter education programs and deficient poll worker training - both of which are ongoing issues in Timor Leste. The number of invalid votes here may be a little elevated, but 20% is freakish.

The other thing that the FRETILIN's figure for invalid votes would show is a 85% voter turnout rate (total votes cast [447,766] divided by the total number of registered voters [522,933] x 100%). While this rate basically matches earlier elections, the international trend is for voter turnout to decrease with each election. Additionally, getting around rural Timor Leste is not particularly easy, which could also depress voter turnout rates. Again, I think that 90,000 is too high.

Which leads me back to the 'mysterious' 30% gap between the number of valid votes counted and the number of registered voters (See 'By the Numbers'). If you're still confused, you are in illustrious company:

"East Timor presidential runoff candidate Jose Ramos-Horta said Thursday the United Nations should explain why 30 percent of voters did not cast a ballot in the first round and demanded a recount. 'It seems like at least 30 percent of voters did not vote,' he told reporters. 'Why? I don't know.'" (Agence France-Presse, 12.04.07)

Here is my answer: We need the number of invalid votes to tell us how much of that 30% is attributable to depressed voter turnout (JRH's concern) and how much can be attributed to invalid votes (FRETILIN's preoccupation), in addition to any uncounted* or lost ballots. The way Ramos-Horta presents it to the media assumes 0% invalid votes - an impossibility. Some of those voters did vote, they just, for instance, did not do it correctly or received invalid ballots.

It is nice to be able to say that those on both side of this fight are partially correct: there are invalid votes and some voters didn't show. We will just have to wait for official figures on either invalid votes or total voter turnout to get a sense of the real breakdown.


* It is important not to treat the 357,766 figure for valid votes released by the CNE as static. There is very little information on how many votes remained to be counted at the time that number was released (I've heard at minimum nine ballot boxes). As these valid votes are added, the 30% figure will shrink.

Photo: Voters waiting in line, Motael.

By the Numbers

As of today, journalists reporting from Timor Leste have been working off two sets of numbers: one set released by the domestic elections monitoring group KOMEG, and the other from the National Elections Commission (CNE, the elections oversight body). KOMEG released figures on Tuesday and Wednesday; the latest CNE release came out on Wednesday, a bit after 5 pm.

Both sets of figures have placed Lu'Olo in the lead, followed by Ramos-Horta and Lasama. However beyond the data on basic standings, there has been a fair amount of confusion within political parties and in the media.

Issues arise in the choice and presentation of data from the CNE. It is absolutely fine to release incomplete information – that is the trade off when reporting on an ongoing process – but context is needed so that observers know where in the process the authorities are.

To be specific, in addition to a breakdown of votes to candidates by district, CNE published three numbers:
- Total number of registered voters (522,933)
- Total number of valid votes (357,766)
- “Percentagem de votos válidos” (68.42%)

It is the last figure that is screwing everyone up. That number is the valid votes already counted divided by the number of registered voters (or put another way, the maximum possible number of voters) - not particularly useful. For this data to come alive, we need to know three things: the total number of votes cast, the number of invalid votes, and the number of votes yet to be counted.

The roughly 30% gap between the number of registered voters and the number of valid votes will be made up of a combination of uncounted votes, invalid votes and a lower than 100% turnout (not every registered voter will have voted). Cementing these figures will also make counting-fraud more difficult.

Right now, counting is not complete for Dili, and delays in counting have been reported in at least one other district.

As for the total number of votes cast, one media report placed the figure at 511,336. This would indicate a stratospheric 97.78% voter turnout - exceeding that of the first presidential election by over 10%. Today at the KOMEG/ANFREL press conference a voter turnout of 75% was mentioned in passing, much closer to the actual figure I'd expect.

If we accept the 75% figure, that means that 6% of votes are yet to be counted or are invalid. The percentage of invalid votes in an election like this generally hovers around 2%.

These numbers games are diverting, but the point should not be lost that there is no reason to be playing them.

Better coordination by STAE, CNE and the UN; fewer delays on passing regulations; stronger political will etc., from the very beginning of this election process, could have meant that observers were now looking at clear(er) numbers rather than fiddling around during lunch break on the back of envelopes.


Photos: From the peace rally last night; it took place in the park across from One More Bar. Lots of international journalists there posing kids holding candles.

Anatomy of an Election

So now for the nuts and bolts:

1. Numbered cable tie sealing a ballot box
2. Political party elections observer
3. Hole puncher to mark all voter ID cards
4. Ballots; held in pads, the ballots included names, pictures, and party symbols
5. Government elections officer from STAE
6. Unsealed ballot boxes used to transfer voting equipment
7. Bottle of ink; stamps for marking ballots

Elections (Photos Added)

There were technical problems in all five polling centers where I observed: people inked the wrong finger; workers did not check for ink; voting cards were not punched; police were too close to the polling center, etc. In the districts, many polling centers ran out of ballots, which a representative to of the National Elections Commission described as an “emergency situation.”

I start with that because what I want to write is that the election felt like a success. More accurately, it had all the uplifting, cinematic elements that an election in a young democracy is supposed to have: fresh-faced Timorese observers studiously double checking if the ballot boxes are empty; voters holding up their inked index fingers as they exit the polls; an elections worker in Vila Verde insisting on reading loudly and clearly the candidates’ full names on over 900 ballots during the counting process.

Candidato Jose Ramos-Horta. Candidato Francisco Xavier do Amaral. Candidato Francisco ‘Lu Olo’ Guterres.

And it was exciting. The power died frequently yesterday, and by 7:30 pm the streets were pitch black and all the stars were out. My last task of the day was to collect our staff and drop them home. One guy was (supposed) to be observing in the large school by the airport. At around 8 pm I rolled into the school’s large courtyard to see that the only spot of light was at the far eastern end.

I parked and walked through the darkness to where the light from the Portuguese soldiers' SUV illuminated a classroom. In the abandoned schoolyard, a dozen or so men sat in loose circles and GNR talked quietly on glowing mobile phones.

The schoolroom was packed – people inside pressed against the counting table, and outside of the room young men pushed each other to see through the broken windows, periodically breaking out into cheers of “Viva Lu’Olo.” Inside, two battery-powered lanterns, about the size of coke cans, lit the growing tally sheets and the faces of those pressing close to see. When it finally came time for the totals, the tense crowd deferred to two Portuguese soldiers and a small Timorese woman to do the sums.

After the counting finished, I waited a while longer for our guy and chatted briefly with poll workers as they waited to transport the ballots. I had started at 5 am, and was ready to sleep, ready to take a rest from speaking and translating Tetum. At 8:30 pm, exhausted, I went back home.

I suppose that those of us who have been working on elections are biased: either unsatified with any irregularity or, like me, perhaps too willing to celebrate the exercise.

So, in the end, the election felt good. Not because they were flawless and not because I suddenly believe that democratic elections solve everything, but because those clichés are affecting. There is something – technical perfection and outcomes aside – that is fundamentally hopeful: yesterday, over half the population of a pissant country chose optimism and got in line.


Photos: Father Martinho of CNE leading a press conference at the Elections Media Center next to the UN headquarters.

Saturday Afternoon

Photos taken near Democracy Field. Note water bottles in the foreground left over from the recent political rallies; Sakura Towers in background.

Tech-savvy

With US elections still roughly two years away, most reports are about fund raising, for example Obama's grassroots approach and McCain's recent struggles. It is no secret that US politics is a big money game: in 2004, Bush spent $367 million. Or $1.25 per US citizen (2004 pop.).

By contrast, the campaign period in Timor Leste is limited, by law, to two weeks (15 days), with a two day blackout period prior to election day. Campaign coffers are measured in the tens of thousands, not hundreds of millions.

This is where blogs come in. At least half of the candidates use free blogging services for their official websites. FRETILIN has at least four: two campaign blogs and party sites in Tetum and English (1,2,3,4). This approach is very clever. By tweaking the blog's journal-like format, the parties have created chic, user-friendly websites.

As someone working with an international elections NGO, it is very cool to see parties innovate and pull together tech-savvy campaigns on a shoestring. The creators of Blogspot.com probably had trekkies and heartsick teens in mind when they launched the site, not providing the internet muscle behind Third World presidential campaigns. This approach could be used anywhere.

Finally, website creation has become a standard feature in proposals involving organizational development, usually budgeted at about $1,000. These sites require a webmaster to make updates, and the associated costs mean that many sites become obsolete quickly and often misinformation sits online, uncorrected.

Too often development organizations equate bigger money with better solutions or outcomes. In the case of website development, an elegant solution may already exist. For free.



Photos: From my visit to the National Museum, Jakarta (above). The museum is known for its collection of Javanese gold; the crown pictured below stood out as almost arte nouveau amongst the more precise, Indian influenced pieces. Bunny for Jess!

Blog Roll

Monday's elections have drawn a number of eminent Timor-watchers to the capital. Tonight Radio Australia interviewed Max Stahl - best know for taking the arresting footage of the watershed 1991 Santa Cruz massacre (left). Speaking from a cellphone in Dili, he had to apologize for the dogs and chickens making noise in the background. A fantastic, high resolution panorama of the Santa Cruz cemetery taken in late 2006 is available here (also interesting for the architecture).

Another notable arrival is James Dunn (blog). His first visit here was 46 years ago during the Portuguese period and he served as the Australian consul to Timor Leste prior to the Indonesian occupation. Dunn produced UNTAET's official report on violence during Indonesia's catastrophic pull-out in 1999, and has been one of the Timor's most well-informed human rights advocates. The current UN mission has been smart and invited him to speak to senior staff.

A final elections period addition has been Timor Today, a blog offering first-rate political analysis. Looking for something a little less buttoned-up? A little more about presidential candidate Lucia Lobato's hairy legs (17 March) and a little less about development failures? Check out pro-FRETILIN blog República Banana.

Emblematic

With presidential elections on Monday, the office has been hit by a wave of elections swag - posters, brochures, etc. I was checking out the bumper sticker tonight ("Vote: Your vote decides your nation and your future") and noticed the controversial new state emblem in the left corner.

The AK-47-clad emblem or coat of arms has been well described on blogs; it was Tumbleweed's post (21 March) that sparked a conversation with my mom in which I claimed that at least one national flag featured an AK-47.

It turns out that flag is Mozambique's.

For those not hip to Portuguese history, Mozambique was, like Timor Leste, a Portuguese colony. Mozambique gained independence in 1975 following the Carnation Revolution in Portugal, bringing an end to a decade-long fight between the Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO) guerilla forces in the north and the Portuguese administration.*

After independence, FRELIMO carried its AK-47 symbol over into the Mozambique’s flag. A similar process took place in Timor Leste, with the National Council for Timorese Resistance (CNRT) - an umbrella pro-independence political group founded in 1998 – sticking its logo in the center of Timor Leste's first national seal. I do not know the origin of the new AK-47 design.

More than disgust or outrage, I have found myself fascinated by the choice as pseudo-historical performance or as aspirational. The AK-47 was the weapon of the Indonesian military. The AK-47 was the weapon distributed to Timorese militias during the devastating 1999 Indonesian pullout. Perhaps its prominence is a form of appropriation – take what hurt you most and claim it as your own.

Alternately, the AK-47 could shout solidarity. According to the New York Times, Mozambique’s flag has repeatedly withstood efforts to lose the gun (and star). The resistance movement and its symbols, the 2005 Times article suggests, still represent a time when the fractured nation was unified.

Timor Leste continues to struggle to mainstream and honor its recent, brutal past. For example, the military is known as the F-FDTL, which, once its nesting acronyms are unpacked, stands for the Armed Forces for the Liberation of East Timor-East Timor Armed Forces. Why the redundancy? To acknowledge the resistance fighters (the Armed Forces for the Liberation of East Timor or FALINTIL) and merge them – at least, titularly – into the new military structure.

The new coat of arms is the visual analog – an inelegant, forceful attempt to include an increasingly anachronistic** symbol of the 25-year guerilla resistance movement into the (visual) discourse of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste.

So between the puzzle of tiny AK-47s on election bumper stickers and the cats living in my ceiling, this place is causing me to forget my laundry and keeps me up way too late at night.

Still to ponder: Campaign posters featuring J-Lo (no joke, pending photo).



* The histories of Timor Leste and Mozambique intertwine; Timorese leaders, including the present and former PMs, spent time in Maputo both before and after Mozambique’s independence.

** The FALINTIL resistance fighters are almost all too old to fit within the F-FDTL’s narrow age requirement.

Kapas!

Mustang and The Vegetarian picked me up on Saturday afternoon from the airport and whisked me off to Sol e Mar for a dip, sit and watermelon juice. On Sunday, joined by Fi, we headed for a mimosa picnic on the pebble beaches of Maubare. There we indulged in a little body surfing and a lovely discsussion of how to sink dead, bloated whales. Yoga tonight.

This is a beautiful country, and I have a good life here.

Photo Credit: LSmith