By the Numbers

As of today, journalists reporting from Timor Leste have been working off two sets of numbers: one set released by the domestic elections monitoring group KOMEG, and the other from the National Elections Commission (CNE, the elections oversight body). KOMEG released figures on Tuesday and Wednesday; the latest CNE release came out on Wednesday, a bit after 5 pm.

Both sets of figures have placed Lu'Olo in the lead, followed by Ramos-Horta and Lasama. However beyond the data on basic standings, there has been a fair amount of confusion within political parties and in the media.

Issues arise in the choice and presentation of data from the CNE. It is absolutely fine to release incomplete information – that is the trade off when reporting on an ongoing process – but context is needed so that observers know where in the process the authorities are.

To be specific, in addition to a breakdown of votes to candidates by district, CNE published three numbers:
- Total number of registered voters (522,933)
- Total number of valid votes (357,766)
- “Percentagem de votos válidos” (68.42%)

It is the last figure that is screwing everyone up. That number is the valid votes already counted divided by the number of registered voters (or put another way, the maximum possible number of voters) - not particularly useful. For this data to come alive, we need to know three things: the total number of votes cast, the number of invalid votes, and the number of votes yet to be counted.

The roughly 30% gap between the number of registered voters and the number of valid votes will be made up of a combination of uncounted votes, invalid votes and a lower than 100% turnout (not every registered voter will have voted). Cementing these figures will also make counting-fraud more difficult.

Right now, counting is not complete for Dili, and delays in counting have been reported in at least one other district.

As for the total number of votes cast, one media report placed the figure at 511,336. This would indicate a stratospheric 97.78% voter turnout - exceeding that of the first presidential election by over 10%. Today at the KOMEG/ANFREL press conference a voter turnout of 75% was mentioned in passing, much closer to the actual figure I'd expect.

If we accept the 75% figure, that means that 6% of votes are yet to be counted or are invalid. The percentage of invalid votes in an election like this generally hovers around 2%.

These numbers games are diverting, but the point should not be lost that there is no reason to be playing them.

Better coordination by STAE, CNE and the UN; fewer delays on passing regulations; stronger political will etc., from the very beginning of this election process, could have meant that observers were now looking at clear(er) numbers rather than fiddling around during lunch break on the back of envelopes.


Photos: From the peace rally last night; it took place in the park across from One More Bar. Lots of international journalists there posing kids holding candles.