Non-Elections Update

I'm working this week to clean off my desk and finish reports so that my fast-approaching holiday in Darwin can involve worry-free napping and record-breaking stretches without checking my email.

The plan while I'm there (1-11 June), napping aside, is to do a bit of camping, buy a bike and check out the birds in Kakadu national park. At 19,804 sq km/7,646 sq miles, the park is over three times the size of my beloved Rhode Island and just under the size of New Jersey. Very exciting; very excited.

Elections Update

The parliamentary election is gearing up, and a few posters and banners have cropped up around Dili. There have been more rallies at Democracy Field and the CNRT headquarters is buzzing. Here are a few notes on recent developments:

- Last Friday I went to see the parties sign a campaign code of conduct. All the party leaders (most of whom had stood in the presidential race) were there pressing flesh and chatting with each other. One representative had a cellphone with the ringer programmed to sound like a rooster, which, in retrospect, I would think would be a poor choice here - too many false alarms! The mood was upbeat, and at the end of the ceremony, the party presidents stood in a line, arms crossed, holding hands, and shouted out slogans for peace, respect and democracy.

- With opinion generally against the changes to the parliamentary elections law, I had hoped that the amendments (discussed 5/17) would be vetoed by President Ramos-Horta. It appears, however, that he signed them into law last night. The change to the counting procedures is only one of number of contraversial features of the amended law; time permitting, I will do a full breakdown.

- I tracked down a complete set of the final results. With parliamentary elections rapidly nearing, and the results from the second round elections so clear, there was little pressure on the National Electoral Commission (CNE) to release data on null, blank and contested votes. Those figures, however, are essential for gauging the effectiveness of voter education efforts and calculating the voter turnout rate. Here are the numbers:

Total Registered Voters: 522,933
Total Valid Votes: 379,159
Total Blank Votes: 7,380
Total Null Votes: 14,640
Total Votes Cast: 401,179

Voter Turnout Rate: 76.7%
Rate of Blank / Null Votes: 1.8% / 3.7%

It appears, in the end, that the voter turnout rate did decrease - a drop of roughly 5%. The good news is that the rates of blank and null votes also decreased, reflecting a simpler ballot in the second round and perhaps also an increased understanding among voters of the process.

- Finally, here are the fourteen entries on the ballot, two of which are coalitions:

# on Ballot; Acronym; Full Name (ENG); Leading Figure(s)

1 UNDERTIM; National Democratic Union for Timorese Resistance; Cornelio “L7” Gama

2 CNRT; National Congress for the Reconstruction of Timor; Xanana Gusmão, Agio Pereira

3 PR; Republican Party; Joao Saldanha

4 PDRT; Democratic Party of the Republic of Timor; Osorio Lequi

5 PDC; Christian Democratic Party; Antonio Ximenes

6 UDT; Timorese Democratic Union; Joao Carrascalao, Quiteria da Costa

7 PD; Democratic Party; Fernando “Lasama” Araujo, Mariano Sabino Lopes

8 PMD; Millennium Democratic Party; Ermenegildo Lopes

9 PST; Socialist Party of Timor; Avelino Coelho da Silva, Nelson Correia

10 ASDT/PSD Coalition; Timorese Association of Social Democrats / Social Democrat Party of East Timor; Xavier do Amaral / Mario Carrascalao, Zacarias Albano da Costa, Joao Goncalves

11 Democratic Alliance Coalition; Association of Timorese Heroes (KOTA) / People’s Party of Timor (PPT); Manuel Tilman / Jacob Xavier

12 FRETILIN; Revolutionary Front of Independent East Timor; Francisco “Lu’Olo” Guterres, Mari Alkatiri

13 PNT; Timorese Nationalist Party; Alilio Araujo

14 PUN; National Unity Party; Fernanda Borges


Photo: Poll workers load ballot boxes into a truch to be transported from the polling center to the district tabulation center.

Change to Counting Process

To recap: In the first and second round of the presidential election, the counting of ballots took place at the polling station. The ballots were then sealed inside a ballot box and transferred to the district tabulation center; the final stop was the national tabulation center in Dili.

I hate to be describing this process in the past tense, but yesterday the National Parliament amended the electoral law, eliminating counting at the polling station level.

On paper it can be hard to imagine the importance of this first level of counting. On voting day, however, it is clear. Kids run between polling stations writing down numbers, young people press against each other to see the counting (see photo) – often breaking out in shouts if the official stumbles. The counts that I have observed have been highly charged, intense.

Watching the counting off Comoro Road I ran into a friend and we began chatting. I was promptly told to shut up by the young man to my right. His territorial, defensive desire to see (and hear) every vote counted is why counting should be accessible, and for me defines the relationship that voters should have to their electoral process – one of ownership.


The primary argument for counting at the station level is transparency. The voter sees the process, and gains trust in the system by observing for him- or herself the professionalism and diligence of the poll workers. Counting at the polling station builds confidence and educates voters. It involves more people in the process. Changing the the law mid-way throught the electoral cycle removes this ability to observe, potentially increasing distrust and opening up the majority party to allegations of fraud.

Counting at the polling stations also lets people know their station’s results immediately; surprisingly, this was used as an argument for changing the law. As the FRETILIN press release stated: “The amendment will mean that no one will know how the people in each suco voted. This will reduce the risk of intimidation and violence for voters." Security arguments aside, district counting will delay – perhaps indefinitely – the reporting of individual polling station results in remote communities.

Elections can seem huge and abstract – not only in a new democracy, but also in the United States or, I imagine, in Australia. The challenge of a democracy is for the voter to see or believe in the connection between his or her ballot and the outcome. The farther that the Timorese government pulls the process away from the people, the weaker that connection will become.

I have never been so proud to be told to quiet down, and I don’t want to see that fever cool.



Photos: People watching the counting process.

Joy Ride

CNE Figures

Here are the latest results from the CNE (click to enlarge), representing results from 90% of the 705 polling stations. There have been minor delays in Lautem, and more significant delays in Baucau. Regardless, Ramos-Horta's performance is strong enough that Australian radio is reporting his victory. Currently Ramos-Horta has 73% (273,685 votes), Guterres 23% (101,374 votes).

I am still waiting for the final number of votes cast, but based on these figures (and estimating the remaining number of votes from Baucau) it looks like my worries about a drop in voter turnout may be unfounded - and actually dead wrong. The provisional results from Dili report 78,402 valid votes, a 8% increase from the first round. The numbers in Covalima and Aileu did drop, but there were minor - and in some cases significant - increases in valid votes in other districts. This may be attributed in part to a decrease in null and blank votes, but I wont be able to work that out until CNE releases those figures.

The healthy voter turnout, the minimal number of incidents, and the speed of the counting process are all good news. Hopefully this positive momentum will carry through the parliamentary elections. As the CNE noted in the final paragraph of their press release, the party lists* for the parliamentry election are due in two days, and only two parties have submitted. Out of the pot and into the fire.





Photos: Top - Young people watch the counting process at a school off Comoro road. Bottom - A STAE official rechecks the final tally.

* Seats in parliament are not tied to region. Instead, each party submits a list and, once the votes are in, a formula is used to calcultate the number of seats. If the party gains 10% of the vote, and the country has a 60 seat parliament, the first six people on the list would gain seats.

Election Day (Updated)

I have come to see elections as a long, technical process, one which begins with the laws and logistical preparations, peaks on voting day, and then only finishes when the final numbers are announced. The cliché is that an election is marathon, not a sprint.

This idea seems to have sunk in around my office, and perhaps more widely. The (perceived) insouciant attitude of Timorese administrators in the run-up to the election had some ex-pat colleagues working on the elections worried. “Where is the panic?” one asked.

The somewhat manic excitement that I felt with the first round has mellowed – a combination of my increasing understanding of the process and perhaps ennui among Dili voters. Even the National Electoral Commission (CNE) is taking it slow; it cancelled all scheduled press conferences and replaced charming, though unpredictable, Fr. Martinho (he was criticized for too often speaking off the cuff), with the CNE’s representative from FONGTIL. At today’s press conference she did well.

For the election, we again started early, leaving the compound around 6:40 AM, making it to the neighborhood primary school to watch the polls open. People were queued outside of the school grounds, and when the word was given they walked, then sprinted, to line up outside the polling station. The laughing, enthusiastic rush (old ladies lifted the hems their skirts to run) belied the comparatively low turnout at that station. A colleague who had been observed there before estimated that in the first round, at the opening, the line had been at least four times as long.

The possible reasons for a drop in turnout are manifold. Over half the voters are choosing between candidates that they did not vote for the first round; intimidation; negative experiences in the first round, etc. International media reports often used the willingness of the Timorese people to wait for hours in the hot sun as evidence of their commitment to democracy – ironically, these long waits may be one reason that voters stayed home. Reports from polling stations across Timor Leste indicated that the majority of voting was completed before noon.

Contrary to this largely anecdotal evidence on voter participation, STAE stated in its press release (19:00, 09.05.07) that it expected the turnout to remain around 82%. A rough voter turnout rate should be available next week.


I spent most of the day bringing margarine-smeared donuts to co-workers observing on behalf of the Coalition for Monitoring the General Elections (KOMEG, an impressive coalition of 19 organizations fielding over 1,000 local observers – more than half of the national total) and zipping over to KOMEG’s headquarters to translate press statements. They have been concerned in particular by instances of observers being barred from entering the polling stations. I will continue to work with KOMEG through the elections, particularly to crunch the fascinating data from the thousands of observer checklists.

We checked out five polling centers, most on Comoro Road, and found that despite some concern over loitering youths the process had gone smoothly. Even in the two cases in which UNPOL called in the Malaysian formed police unit, in riot gear, to move the onlookers away from the polling stations, people were compliant. The UN reported that the election "has been free of any serious incidents of violence and intimidation" (09.05.07). However, according to the CNE’s press statement (11:30, 10.05.07) there was violence in Urahoau-Ermera.

Additionally, the CNE reported that 84 ballots, which were already marked for Lu’Olo, were given to voters. These fraudulent ballots were cancelled.

The counting process in the places were I observed also went smoothly and concluded before dark – a significant improvement and accomplishment. Dili came in strongly for Ramos-Horta in the first round, and he again put up strong numbers, even taking a polling station in Becora by 1,259 to Lu’Olo’s 71. CNE has indicated that by midnight Aileu had completed the district tabulation, with the provisional result of 1,065 for Lu'Olo, 15,984 Ramos-Horta.* Oecusse and Bobonaro were also more than half done with their tabulations at that time.

More numbers will start rolling in very soon (More graphs! More spreadsheets!) and so far it appears that finalizing the results will be quicker and cleaner than in April.

Photos: Top and bottom - Low attendance at the Fatuhada polling station. Middle - Voter rush to get into line at Escola Sina; international observer looking on.

* These provisional results suggest 16,987 valid votes, a drop of 1,151 valid votes or 7%.

XO

Happy Birthday Mom!

Countdown

We are now three days away from the final round of the presidential election and at the end of the final day of campaigning. Lu'Olo held a rally in Dili yesterday, and this afternoon Ramos-Horta drew an estimated 6,000-7,000 people to Democracy Field (roughly ten times the size of his rival's crowd). The gathering was peaceful, although security issues generally crop up later, when the trucks carrying amped-up supporters ride around the city.

I arrived after all the speeches, just in time to see the trucks start rumbling out of the playing field. I wandered around a bit, and watched a Portuguese TV crew wrap up in front of a tableau of singing Timorese dressed in tais, guys selling tangerines, and the ema bot (lit. 'big people,' trans. VIPs) embracing at the back of the stage. As the trucks left, people followed on foot. Within a half-hour, the field was largely empty, spare hundreds of clear plastic cups.

What I had not anticipated was the vivid presence of party flags. As Ramos-Horta is standing as a independent, supporters of opposition parties have been able to maintain their distinct party identities yet also support JRH. Very savvy. The National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT, see top photo) - President Gusmão's new party - was also very well represented, and if today's rally is any indication, the party will be in a strong position come June.


Photos: Please click on photos to enlarge.

De-Faced

Above: Voter education posters in Liquiça with the images of Francisco 'Lu'Olo' Guterres removed.

As Ned Used to Say: "Hot Graffix"

Sometimes when I work - particularly when I was in school - I "go down the rabbit hole." I take one turn, follow one tangent, tunnel vision kicks in, and then hours later emerge miles from where I started, legs asleep.

Today's started with one graphic (please click to enlarge) that I was putting together for a newsletter:
It is the basic breakdown of which candidate won which district, and I probably should have stopped there. Two things bugged me though: first there is no indication of population density, and second, this type of map suggests major regional divisions, obscuring a more nuanced story.

Inspired by the elections maps that distort the US states by population, I began by calculating what percentage of the national vote (valid only) each district brought in. Rounding the numbers I came up with 101 squares, each representing about 40,000 votes or almost 1% of the total valid votes cast. I mashed them into the form of the districts, yielding the figure at left.

It does a fine job showing the population trends - Dili (bright green) is huge, explaining in part Horta's success, and other districts become tiny (Manatuto, blue, not really helping to explain Horta's success).

But this figure didn't quite work either. I then overlayed it onto the map (below, colors correspond to top figure). Better? Not quite. Done this way, the map suggests that Araujo garnered over 30% of the vote. I needed to show both population and the breakdown among candidates.
Which led me to the final figure. Again, each color-coded square represents roughly 1% of the national vote.* The white squares represent the aggregate votes for the candidates that did break 40,000 votes in the district. Once you get the hang of reading it, it's pretty cool.
Looking over this monstrosity with my boss, we decided that while it was not going to fly with a general audience, some other elections geeks out there may enjoy it.

* The distibution of squares is based on multiplying the percentage of the total vote a district represented times the candidates performance in that district. For example, if Ermera composes 10% of all valid votes nationally, and Candidate A won with 40% of the vote in Ermera, 4 squares go to the candidate. Note that becuase of having to round the numbers, and the high number of candidates, there is around a 5 % margin of error.