Today's started with one graphic (please click to enlarge) that I was putting together for a newsletter:

It is the basic breakdown of which candidate won which district, and I probably should have stopped there. Two things bugged me though: first there is no indication of population density, and second, this type of map suggests major regional divisions, obscuring a more nuanced story.
Inspired by the elections maps that distort the US states by population, I began by calculating what percentage of the national vote (valid only) each district brought in. Rounding the numbers I came up with 101 squares, each representing about 40,000 votes or almost 1% of the total valid votes cast. I mashed them into the form of the districts, yielding the figure at left. It does a fine job showing the population trends - Dili (bright green) is huge, explaining in part Horta's success, and other districts become tiny (Manatuto, blue, not really helping to explain Horta's success).
But this figure didn't quite work either. I then overlayed it onto the map (below, colors correspond to top figure). Better? Not quite. Done this way, the map suggests that Araujo garnered over 30% of the vote. I needed to show both population and the breakdown among candidates.

Which led me to the final figure. Again, each color-coded square represents roughly 1% of the national vote.* The white squares represent the aggregate votes for the candidates that did break 40,000 votes in the district. Once you get the hang of reading it, it's pretty cool.

Looking over this monstrosity with my boss, we decided that while it was not going to fly with a general audience, some other elections geeks out there may enjoy it.
* The distibution of squares is based on multiplying the percentage of the total vote a district represented times the candidates performance in that district. For example, if Ermera composes 10% of all valid votes nationally, and Candidate A won with 40% of the vote in Ermera, 4 squares go to the candidate. Note that becuase of having to round the numbers, and the high number of candidates, there is around a 5 % margin of error.
6 comments:
I was just thinking of how much I wanted to see these graphics. You read my mind.
I quite liked your last map. It was not that hard to follow. But it cannot be read at a glance, it's true.
If you have the patience, what about winner by subdistrict? I think this could really help us see the patterns. Maybe the subdistrict map would be easy to read at a glance and slightly less divided by "region" for the general audience.
Thanks!
very cool Kate, nice work.
This is so cool!
The map higlights the fact that the was very regionalised as some people have said.
I wonder how this would have an effect on the Legislative elections in June. Possibly round two will give a better indication of how the Legislative elections may pan out.
Stop it! You're cracking up. Go diving, chill out.
Backpackers, Monday May 14th, 7.00pm, my birthday (I enter my 50th year)please come.
Cheers,
FOS, this proves we were fated to be friends: we're born only a day apart. I look forward to the shindig.
JG, I like your suggestion - it would be a really interesting map. When those results come in, I will give it a shot.
Anon and Gabe, thanks for your comments.
Best!
KCR
Speaking as a geek... very interesting. Can't wait to see what you make of the parliamentaries. Also gave me inspiration for a nice bathroom tile mosaic....
Cheers
Mrs Sod
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