Certifiable

We have a date. After months of speculation, a day has been chosen for the presidential elections: 9 April 2007. The date for parliamentary elections is still TBA. There is a lot to do in these next two months.

While the UN is not in charge of the elections, they have geared up their machine and deployed both UN staff and UN police to all the districts. More importantly, the UN (though not under the Timor mission, UNMIT) has sent in an electoral certification team (ECT).

The ECT will, in theory, certify each stage of the elections according to predetermined benchmarks. The benchmarks are set out as a series of yes/no questions, for example: Are the qualifications and disqualifications for registration based on objectively verifiable criteria prescribed by law?

The ECT just released their third report, highlighting problems with the electoral laws, voter registration, vote counting, complaints handling and security. Weaknesses include disqualifying voters of “unsound mind,” without providing “objectively verifiable criteria” to make this determination or offering an appeals process.

Other issues are more technical. Timor Leste uses a list system in which people vote for a national party rather than a regional representative. The new parliamentary electoral law places a 3% threshold for a seat, meaning that of 100,000 votes cast, the party must receive at least 3,000 votes to gain a seat. Thresholds are not without precedent – they are commonly used in new democracies to put pressure on small parties to form coalitions or join larger parties.

The problem with the current electoral law is that it is unclear if this percentage will be taken from all votes cast (including those rejected for being blank, double votes, etc.) or only valid votes. Reading the laws for these oversights requires visualizing each tiny step of the electoral process.

The electoral law has a number of provisions that, while not unconstitutional, are unpopular. For example, the majority shot down the requirement of one woman in every five candidates on the list, instead only requiring one woman in the top five candidates. At a workshop today, numerous participants were upset that there is no provision for overseas voting; this was a particularly raw issue because a planeload of lauded Timorese students just left for two years of medical training in Cuba.

The challenge for the ECT is that this flawed law has been signed, sealed and delivered and there is no political will in Parliament to amend it.

That said, if everything goes reasonably well, the ECT will confirm the legitimacy of the elections and their adherence, however imperfect, to international standards. While many here are concerned that the ECT will not certify the elections, I think that there will be tremendous pressure from the UN, donors, Australia and the Timorese government for them to do so.

NDI commented on the electoral law during the public hearings a couple of months ago. NDI’s focus has now shifted and currently the organization is working with a coalition of twelve NGOs that will conduct domestic elections monitoring. On 23 January 2007, the Coalition for Monitoring the General Elections (KOMEG) officially launched, complete with the signing of the Pactu Nasional – a pledge in support of free, safe, and fair elections.

There are already lots of eyes watching this election; the real question is what the Timorese courts and government will do when more critical reports start rolling in.


The photos are from the KOMEG launch. Top: The swearing in of district coordinators. Middle I: Prof. Julio Tomas Pinto signs the Pactu Nasional. Middle I: KOMEG member signs the Pactu Nasional. Bottom: My signature.