Certifiable, Part Deux

I just wrote a lot about the nitty-gritty of the elections, and here I am writing about them again. As a disclaimer, if the minutia does not interest you, please just take away two things: a) these elections are critical for Timor Leste and b) this is what my peers and coworkers here in Dili talk about over coffee, at lunch, at the beach, after work, before work, etc.

So, you ask, why are they so important?

First, these elections are a key component in Timor Leste's fight for political legitimacy. New states must prove that they deserve a seat at the table, and elections are the key way to demonstrate a viable, sustainable, political system.

Second, the elections are a critical step towards establishing Timor's autonomy from the UN (the UN ran the last set of elections) and building a strong foundation for future, less assisted, elections. If they flounder, it will be the UN to step in and pick up the pieces. As with #1, this is about 'performing' state sovereignty.

Third, the elections will shake up the political landscape. While the majority party remains strong, the popular President, former guerrilla leader Xanana Gusmão, may form a rival party and run for Parliament, inevitably creating fissures in Fretilin. Unlike cautious, two-party US politics, Timor's are fluid and major party upheaval is coming in the next two months.

Finally, done poorly, these elections could cause greater instability in Dili and beyond, increasing the number of displaced persons and putting many at risk.

The stakes are high.

So now for the update: It turns out that the date for the parliamentary elections will not be announced until after the presidential elections are held on 9 April 2007. This news was embedded in the straightforward announcement from the President, and I think that most people just read the headline - as I did at first - and will be surprised by the delay.

There is already grumbling coming from Fretilin (the majority party), and they have threatened to pull out of the parliamentary elections if they are not held before 20 May 2007, Independence Day. They may have the constitution on their side (terms are supposed to end on the 20th), but this kind of threat is disquieting and too closely echoes the rhetoric that shut down elections, amidst fighting, in Bangladesh in December.

Anyway, this is an unfortunate move, prolonging the period of uncertainty, agitating Fretilin and making planning difficult. While waiting does give elections officials more flexibility in the case of instability, this solution also appears to compound the problem. Stay tuned!



Photos: Bali flashback - The SV Infinity (the new ship) has a fantastic rigging system and gorgeous stainless winches; the light sails can be raised and lowered by two people rather than a minimum of five on the RV Heraclitus. No more sticking poles into the big red deck-winch and running in a circle to raise the main (top).

Orla checks the radar to see if we have dragged anchor (middle).

The volcano visible from the Candidasa anchorage (bottom).