"54-46 That's My Number"

A few new numbers rolled into my inbox this morning, and I thought that I would keep up the scratch-work until official figures lay this to rest.

The new number - 90,000 invalid votes (a little too round) - came via a FRETILIN spokesperson in a Thursday interview with the Jakarta Post (12.04.07). This number, I expect, is high.

Here is why: Adding together the total number from the CNE of valid votes counted (357,766) with FRETILIN's number for invalid votes (90,000) we get an estimate of total votes cast - 447,766. In this scenario, invalid votes make up 20% of all votes or 1 of every 5 votes cast. As I wrote before, this figure is generally expected to be below 5%.

Votes are invalidated for a number of reasons, including the lack of both a signature and a stamp on the ballot paper, no vote, and multiple votes. While a high percentage of invalid votes could reflect fraud, it also is attributable to a dearth of voter education programs and deficient poll worker training - both of which are ongoing issues in Timor Leste. The number of invalid votes here may be a little elevated, but 20% is freakish.

The other thing that the FRETILIN's figure for invalid votes would show is a 85% voter turnout rate (total votes cast [447,766] divided by the total number of registered voters [522,933] x 100%). While this rate basically matches earlier elections, the international trend is for voter turnout to decrease with each election. Additionally, getting around rural Timor Leste is not particularly easy, which could also depress voter turnout rates. Again, I think that 90,000 is too high.

Which leads me back to the 'mysterious' 30% gap between the number of valid votes counted and the number of registered voters (See 'By the Numbers'). If you're still confused, you are in illustrious company:

"East Timor presidential runoff candidate Jose Ramos-Horta said Thursday the United Nations should explain why 30 percent of voters did not cast a ballot in the first round and demanded a recount. 'It seems like at least 30 percent of voters did not vote,' he told reporters. 'Why? I don't know.'" (Agence France-Presse, 12.04.07)

Here is my answer: We need the number of invalid votes to tell us how much of that 30% is attributable to depressed voter turnout (JRH's concern) and how much can be attributed to invalid votes (FRETILIN's preoccupation), in addition to any uncounted* or lost ballots. The way Ramos-Horta presents it to the media assumes 0% invalid votes - an impossibility. Some of those voters did vote, they just, for instance, did not do it correctly or received invalid ballots.

It is nice to be able to say that those on both side of this fight are partially correct: there are invalid votes and some voters didn't show. We will just have to wait for official figures on either invalid votes or total voter turnout to get a sense of the real breakdown.


* It is important not to treat the 357,766 figure for valid votes released by the CNE as static. There is very little information on how many votes remained to be counted at the time that number was released (I've heard at minimum nine ballot boxes). As these valid votes are added, the 30% figure will shrink.

Photo: Voters waiting in line, Motael.